Sorry, my crystal ball isn’t working. But this is an interesting theory. This guys is basically saying that he thinks Facebook’s growth in popularity could be their downfall. Check it out yourself. WIRED reports this:
Boing Boing editor Cory Doctorow has (a) theory. The crux is simple — the more people get involved in social networking, the more users are likely to encounter people they’d rather avoid. Doctorow goes on to theorize that the more often this happens, the more likely people are bound to abandon a site.
His argument may be simple, but it’s genuinely tapped in to how people communicate. “That’s why I don’t worry about Facebook taking over the net,” he explains. “As more users flock to it, the chances that the person who precipitates your exodus will find you increases. Once that happens, poof, away you go — and Facebook joins SixDegrees, Friendster and their pals on the scrapheap of net.history.”
I’m not convinced. But it’s interesting to hear people’s speculations.
Here’s what I do know. Fact: Facebook is growing by leaps and bounds in popularity. MySpace… it’s holding it’s own for now.
It will be interesting to see what the future holds. Right now it seems as though many of the teenagers that are tired of the “anonymity” and “pick up” atmosphere of MySpace are fleeing to Facebook. But some teenagers are enjoying the lack of responsibility that MySpace offers.
Plus… who’s going to switch their account when they have 867 “MySpace friends?” Starting over would be pretty depressing!
Time will tell…
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